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Crude Oil Price Movements and Exchange Rates We already mentioned that there are countries that are heavily dependent on their oil exports. This fact is important not only because a bad year in the oil markets could affect the economic performance of these countries, but because oil prices and quantity fluctuations usually affect the exchange rate of those countries. Let's take Canada as an example. In other words, an increase in the crude oil price assuming a steady demand often means an increase in the U.
This usually pushes the exchange rate downwards, since Canadian dollars would be now relatively more scarce compared to the number of greenbacks that are now circulating in the economy. The reverse, of course, is also true: falling oil prices mean that Canada will be getting fewer dollars per barrel, which implies a lower U. As a trader, there are ways of taking advantage of oil price movements by means of trading crude oil currency pairs, especially if you are reluctant or unable to trade crude oil directly.
This pair tends to increase in value when the oil market is down, and it decreases in value when the market soars, which means that it may be possible to formulate a strategy to trade this pair based on the oil market price movements.
Other currencies benefit from a positive correlation with crude oil, like the Norwegian Krone and the Russian Ruble; however, those tend to have a low liquidity, which means it may be harder to take advantage of the relationship between these currencies and crude oil, at least compared to other Forex correlations. Regarding crude oil prices and the U. The inverse relationship was especially true when the United States was considered a net oil importer, but the situation has changed significantly in the last decade, as the U.
Now the correlation tends to be positive, though it must be remarked that this has been anything but constant over time. Crude Oil Price Movements and Fundamental Analysis Just as crude oil prices can influence currency exchange rates, they can also impact the fundamentals that play a role in the valuation of some currencies.
As we said, there are countries that are heavily dependent on their oil exports, for example, Mexico, Norway, and Venezuela. Because of this, unfavorable oil price movements affect traders' and investors' perceptions about the intrinsic value of their currencies.
The inverse is also true. Rising oil prices could favor certain currencies. An example of this, at least over the long run, is the performance of the Norwegian Krone. Nevertheless, the correlation of this currency with the price of crude oil is very volatile and tends to be lower when the oil markets rally.
In any case, there seems to exist a more solid correlation when the price of crude oil is falling, so it may be possible to profit from this positive Forex correlation when the oil market crashes. Cookies do not transfer viruses or malware to your computer. Because the data in a cookie does not change when it travels back and forth, it has no way to affect how your computer runs, but they act more like logs i. We may obtain information about you by accessing cookies, sent by our website.
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Naturally it follows that the currencies of these three countries are affected by changes in oil prices. The most important correlation is that of the US Dollar with crude oil, with an inverse relationship existing between the two. When crude prices rise, the value of the USD falls and vice versa. With this relationship in mind, the logical question would be: which currency pair would be used to trade this relationship in the Forex market?
This is because the Euro has little fundamental factors that may mask the impact of oil. Indeed the most telling fundamental impact on the Euro has been from the sovereign debt crisis in some of the EU countries. So when the price of crude oil is making a major push or a major pull-back, the EURUSD can be traded to follow this movement. All the trader needs to do is to use the various technical entries that have been described on this site to make the appropriate trades.
Also known as the Aussie, Australia is a huge exporter of coal and iron ore. This means that the price is dependent on coal and iron-ore prices 6. It has huge reserves of timber, natural gas, and oil. The Canadian Dollar is another commodity pair and is nicknamed the Loonie.
The commodities it exports are oil, natural gas and timber. The Minor Forex Pairs Next up is the minors, which are different crosses of currency pairs that are less popular but are still liquid and tradeable.
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