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Direct to your inbox. Receive a complimentary subscription to always stay ahead. Subscribe Caution still warranted on UK fixed income After the announcement of an expansionary fiscal policy package by the new UK government, volatility in UK assets spiked. In this note, we look at the implications recent events have for UK fixed income. We prefer to remain sidelined on UK gilts, but valuations in selected GBP credits with solid fundamentals and limited downgrade risks are starting to look interesting for buy-and-hold investors.

In fact, the sell-off in UK gilts was so pronounced that it threatened the stability of the UK pension fund sector and prompted the Bank of England BoE to implement temporary support measures. In the latest developments, the scheduled withdrawal of BoE support on 14 October, sharp market moves and voices from within and outside of the Conservative Party pressured the government to scale back of the planned fiscal spending. On 17 October, newly appointed Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced a set of measures to reassure financial markets, removing some pressure from gilt prices as well as the GBP.

High volatility in gilt markets The volatility of recent weeks has been particularly pronounced in gilt markets. UK yields remain well above pre-budget levels, which raises the question of whether now could be a good moment for investors to enter these assets.

Moreover, the previously announced energy bill will result in increased gilt issuance — with fewer potential buyers available now that demand from traditional institutional investors might be lower as pension funds have increased cash ratios due to the recent events. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

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