Key numbers in nba betting strategies

Do teams historically tend to bounce back in their next game after getting embarrassed against the spread ATS? The short answer is yes! That fits perfectly with my contrarian approach to sports betting. That forces sportsbooks to adjust their odds and it creates good opportunities for contrarians like us! Obviously, as a statistician, I need data to back up my intuitions. Still, a Notice how the win percentages generally increase as we move down the table. More specifically, teams that have lost the past game by If it got destroyed by Those are pretty convincing numbers over a large sample.

And it goes in accordance with my initial intuition, so we have a perfect mix for a betting system that we can actually trust in the future. I did! In the table below, we are betting teams that lost the two most recent games of the series ATS which does not necessarily mean they lost those games straight up!

Remember what we saw in Section 2 of this article! Each row specifies the number of points by which the team in question lost the previous game of the series. As for columns, they indicate the same information, but this time relative to what happened two games ago.

Overall, teams losing against the spread on two straight occasions in a series have gone We observe a funny coincidence: the win percentage, Now, if you impose the restriction of only betting teams that have lost by at least 4. The corresponding ROI turns out to be So far we have developed two terrific betting strategies that recommend backing teams coming off one or two disappointing performances during the NBA playoffs.

My next intuition was as follows: Is it possible that we do better when betting favorites? Here was my reasoning. Suppose Team A is stronger than Team B. For instance, Team A might be the 2 seed, while Team B may have finished as the 7 seed. Now, it is possible that Team A plays a sloppier game because they feel overconfident and take their opponents lightly. After a bad performance, they will be ready to roll and have a much higher motivation level.

Sounds logical, right? Mind the matchups Every team has its strengths and weaknesses. When searching for the best NBA bets, look closely at how those attributes match up against that day's opponent using our NBA scores and matchups page. If a team struggles to rebound and takes on a foe with a bigger, more potent frontcourt that dominates the glass, make sure you account for that and bet accordingly.

Basketball is a game of runs, and these matchups and mismatches often fuel those deciding swings. Injuries and off nights The NBA schedule is a grind, and injuries will play a huge role in a team's success along the way. If you're looking to bet on a side, comb through the injury report and see which key contributors are out of action.

Also, try and find out which players could be resting — a recent wrinkle to betting the NBA, particularly on back-to-backs. Big-name stars' status will carry the most impact on the NBA odds. Still, there is an edge in finding undervalued injuries and how those could impact a team's performance.

A missing backup point guard or a sidelined wing defender may not move the odds but will have a say in the final score. Follow the line movement As with all sports wagering, NBA betting is often not about betting the best team but rather the best number. Point spreads, moneylines, and totals will constantly adjust to action and injury news. Make sure you monitor the opening NBA odds and where they're moving to pinpoint the best time to place your bet. Dive into derivatives NBA betting odds can be chopped up into halves and quarters, setting sides and totals for different segments of the game.

These derivative odds can hold added value not found in the full-game lines as teams present tendencies and trends that fly under the radar of oddsmakers. Some teams are slow starters and find their form in the second half, making them an excellent bet to fade with the first-half spreads. Others come out firing quickly on offense in the first quarter, adding value to the Over in the opening frame.

Dive into the analytic splits to uncover the best derivative bets on the board. Scout the schedule The calendar can sometimes dictate a team's performance on the court, depending on rest spots, travel, and motivation. Situational betting — also known as spot bets — is a valuable tool to find underlying value betting on or against a team.

Chunks of the schedule could have a team playing multiple games in a short window, leaving them running on empty for the final outings of that stretch. The schedule can also allot an extended break from the action, allowing players and coaches to adjust their game plan and get injured bodies back.

And as always, be mindful of "letdown" and "lookahead" spots around important matchups and big wins. Handicapping refs An underutilized method of handicapping basketball odds is to dissect the guys blowing the whistle.

Covers is one of the rare sources of unique betting data for every NBA referee assignment. You can use this data to measure a team's recent betting results when a particular ref is part of the officiating crew. Or, you can follow referees with one-sided tendencies to the Over and Under, as some refs will call more fouls than others.

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