Michigan state basketball tournament odds

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Worse yet, there is an event horizon visible in the distance. If the Spartans get too close, they will cross the point of no return and a cherished year NCAA Tournament streak will be lost forever. It is unbelievable that we even need to talk about that considering where the Spartans were just a month ago, but here we are.

So, how bad are things, really? How much do Michigan State fans need to worry about the unthinkable? Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 2. Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb.

Iowa has made a move up to fifth place, a fraction of a win ahead of Rutgers, with Michigan and Michigan State about a half game back of the Scarlet Knights. Indiana is more than a game behind the Michiganders. While it likely feels to Michigan State fans that they will never win a game again, there is still a 60 percent chance that the Spartans finish at or better and a 21 percent chance that they win at least three of their final four games.

Table 3 below gives the updated odds to at least share the Big Ten regular season title as of Feb. Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. Consistent with Table 2, the race looks like it will come down to Purdue and Wisconsin who have a 65 and 57 percent chance to win the regular season title. Incidentally, those two teams will play each other in Madison on Tuesday, March 1.

The winner of that game will likely clinch at least a share of the championship. Note also that the math is still split on whether Purdue or Wisconsin will win out and claim the title at In general, there is a 62 percent chance that the eventual winner does not have to share the title, a 24 percent chance that two teams will share the title and a 14 percent chance that it is a three-team or more tie. Big Ten Tournament and Strengths of Schedule If the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 22 Big Ten games left on the full schedule.

Fortunately, we can use projected point spreads and simulations to get a sneak peek on how the Big Ten Tournament seeding might play out. Table 4 below summarizes the odds for each team to earn each seed. Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb 26, The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update. As the end of the season approaches, the seeding for the Big Ten Tournament is starting to take shape.

The top four seeds are fixed with about 90 percent certainty. In addition, seeds No. But seeds No. That said, any seed from No. In addition, I have extracted additional information from the simulation. The shaded column in the center of Table 4 now shows the most likely opponents for the Spartans to face in the first round of the Big Ten tournament.

Indiana 43 percent and Penn State 32 percent are the current most likely opponents. That said, there is a part of me that thinks MSU might be safe already. The Spartans have more high quality wins and an equal or fewer number of bad losses than any other bubble team. Boise State? The Broncos just lost three in a row, including a bad loss to Fresno State.

The Musketeers have lost two of their last three against Providence and Georgetown. Seton Hall? Losers of the last three. Utah State? I have a hard time imagining any of those teams jumping Michigan State. Furthermore, all of the bubble teams, by definition, will lose at least one more time in their conference tournament or they would be the automatic qualifier.

Those teams all will have limited chances to make up ground on MSU. That is the biggest concern right now. By the end of the day on Sunday, the Spartans will have played seven games over 16 days. It is easy to spot the signs of fatigue over the past few games. This team clearly has tired legs. Fortunately the gauntlet is almost over. The Spartans will have a full three days off before starting the Big Ten Tournament just a few hours down the road in Indianapolis.

Will this be enough time to fully or even partially recharge? While that is not a lot of time, it is more time than MSU has had since the game at Indiana, and it is certainly better than starting play on Wednesday. Maybe after playing so many games on one or two days rest, a three-day break might feel like a week.

Hopefully for at least a minute span, the Spartans can regain some of the form that we saw against Illinois and Ohio State. If the Spartans were to lose on Friday to most likely Michigan, it would not be all bad. The extra rest would certainly be welcome. At this point, MSU would have perhaps only played one or two games in a span of 12 days. By then, the Spartans might look quite a bit different, and they might be quite a bit more dangerous.

Does this team have what it takes to go on a run? I will make the argument that it can. We have already seen this team play at a very high level in several games this year. One of them was just last week against a potential No. The Spartans then followed that up with a gritty win over another potential No. While both of these games were at home, I have seen enough to believe that this team does have the capability to win more than one or two games in the NCAA Tournament.

We all know that this team has flaws, especially at the point guard and center positions. We all know that this team struggles to shoot and to find anyone other than Aaron Henry to be a consistent option on offense. However, we have also seen almost every member of the roster flash with some very high-level play. If the team is able to catch up on rest, get back into the practice gym, and find a way to get three or four guys peaking, then all of the sudden this becomes a very dangerous team that no one will want to face.

It is also certainly possible that MSU could be given a fairly advantageous seed. If MSU were to draw a No. Well, Ohio State and Iowa are on the two-line right now, and MSU has shown that it can play with those teams in at least two of three chances. How about a No. See: Illinois, Breslin Center, Feb 23, Of course, this is a very optimistic take on the future trajectory of this season.

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