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Questions to experienced traders. Today at Anissa. Charles has taught at a number of institutions including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Societe Generale, and many more. Learn about our Financial Review Board A trend is a tendency for prices to move in a particular direction over a period.

Trends can be long term, short term, upward, downward and even sideways. Success with forex market investments is tied to the investor's ability to identify trends and position themselves for profitable entry and exit points. This article examines the stages of a forex trend and how they affect investors. Economic Trends Reflected in Currencies For the most part, an economy that is strong will also have a strong currency.

Economic strength attracts investment, and investment creates demand for a currency. The demand for gold as an alternative to fiat currencies has led to a currency demand in those countries that produce gold such as Australia, South Africa and Canada. Dollar Note how the economic factors, in this case, a demand for gold and the higher interest rates in Australia around to , created a demand for the Australian currency.

This type of demand will last until the exchange rate becomes too high and negatively affects Australian exports. In addition, factors in other economies should be considered since no single currency can act in isolation of the rest of the world's economies. While the price exchange rate oscillated back and forth in a regression channel, providing some short-term trades in the opposite direction, the prevailing upward trend remained intact.

Australian Dollar Vs. Canada is also a commodities -producing country, with a lot of natural resources. In the case of the Australian dollar chart, there is an upward-sloping growth path as the demand for Australian dollars increase. Since the Australian currency is the base currency and the U. On the other hand, in the case of the Canadian dollar against the U.

Thus the chart shows the U. Dollar Vs. Canadian Dollar. Ranges Of course, the difficult questions to answer are whether a trend exists at all or just a sideways-trading range and where and when a trend will start and where and when it will end.

We first look at the question of where a trend could start and, once started, where to take part in the action. To answer these questions, we need technical analysis. To keep our analysis as simple as possible, we create a chart that uses a weekly time frame and uses only two indicators. The first indicator is a simple period moving average calculated on the closing prices.

However, to add a cushion, we also add an additional period simple moving average , but this time calculated on the price highs. Then, we add another period simple moving average calculated on the price lows. The result is a moving average channel that reflects a dynamic price equilibrium. We use this channel to determine when prices are trending up and when prices are trending down.

We assume that if prices break below the channel, there is a potential downtrend, and if they break above the channel, there is a potential uptrend. Also notice that when a market trends in either direction, there is a tendency for prices to move away from the channel and to return to the channel as volatility increases and decreases, respectively.

With volatility, prices always tend to revert to the mean over a period.

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