H4 strategy forex trading

The purpose of this strategy is to look for the best differences that have a high probability of winning. The filter method proposed above described seems quite efficient, clear and simple to implement. Special indicator CCI Divergence setting: fast ema 12, slow ema 26, signal line sma 9; overbought and oversold , - Trading rules Forex Divergence H4 Strategy Buy Buy arrow, conditions: If the indicator goes into the zone below and the price touches lower bollinger bands or broke low BB.

Open an buy position for the two situations when the CCI turn above level, at the close of the candle. Sell Sell arrow, conditions: If the indicator goes into the zone above and the price touches upper bollinger bands or broke high BB. In other words, you test your system using the past as a proxy for the present. MT4 comes with an acceptable tool for backtesting a forex trading strategy nowadays, there are more professional tools that offer greater functionality.

To start, you set up your time frames and run your program under a simulation; the tool will simulate each tick, knowing that for each unit it should open at certain price, close at a certain price, and reach specified highs and lows. The indicators that my client had chosen, along with the decision logic, were not profitable. Here are the results of running the program over the M15 window for operations: Note that the balance the blue line finishes below its starting point.

This is known as parameter optimization. I did some rough testing to try to infer the significance of the external parameters on the return ratio and arrived at this: Cleaned up, it looks like this: You may think, as I did, that you should use parameter A. Specifically, note the unpredictability of parameter A: For small error values, its return changes dramatically.

In other words, parameter A is very likely to overpredict future results since any uncertainty—any shift at all—will result in worse performance. But indeed, the future is uncertain! And so the return of parameter A is also uncertain. The best choice, in fact, is to rely on unpredictability. Often, a parameter with a lower maximum return but superior predictability less fluctuation will be preferable to a parameter with high return but poor predictability.

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