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That could greatly stifle broader diffusion, according to a unique new study by MIT researchers that examines adoption rates of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin among MIT students. Tucker is the Sloan Distinguished Professor of Management. During the rollout, the researchers randomly delayed giving half the students their bitcoin allotment by a couple of weeks. Students who were identified as early adopters of Bitcoin, but whose payment was delayed, cashed out their balance and abandoned the technology at nearly twice the rate of early adopters who received their payment earlier.
The early adopters who cashed out also influenced those around them to do the same in high numbers. Cash-out rates among early adopters were also amplified in dorms, especially smaller dorms where the delayed or non-delayed status of students would be more well-known, indicating that early adopters need to feel like they are part of an exclusive group in order to stick with new technologies.
Published today in Science, the paper is the first to examine what happens when natural early adopters NEAs are purposely denied first, exclusive access to new technologies, Catalini says. Those students had five days to sign up on a waiting list, complete a survey, and create a digital wallet. The researchers first identified which students exhibited natural early adopter NEA traits compared to the other students, whom they refer to as natural late adopters NLAs.
They classified as NEAs the first 25 percent of students who signed up to the waiting list, all within the first 24 hours. Surveys showed that those NEAs were also more likely to be top computer programmers, to have built mobile apps, and to use peer-to-peer payment apps, among other identifiers. These characteristics align with popular definitions of early adopters, who generally possess advanced technical skills that help them start using new technologies.
Bitcoins were distributed a few weeks after the signups. But the researchers randomly delayed distribution of the bitcoins to 50 percent of the students, both NEAs and NLAs, by another two weeks. Findings were surprising. The two-week cash-out rate of the NEAs who received their bitcoins late rose to 18 percent, well over the non-delayed NEA cash-out rate of 11 percent.
Both groups of late adopters, on the other hand, showed cash-out rates of roughly 10 percent, suggesting they were indifferent to the delay. Diffusion describes how innovation spreads through time. Adopter Categories: Four Stages of Diffusion People can be divided into five categories describing how innovative they are and where they fit into the timeline when it comes to adopting innovation. They seek new, dangerous and risky adventures and they tolerate relatively large amounts of risk and uncertainty.
They are generally not respected by the established social system. The Cypherpunks. They are often seen as role models of the incumbents. In , several established players from the investment and finance media world entered the crypto market. These players are opinion formers and quickly established themselves as authorities in this new industry.
Rogers research shows that adoption in the different categories typically follows a normal bell shaped distribution, as seen. The bell curve shows the percentage of people adopting over time. Innovation and new technologies such as Bitcoin, typically follow an S-curve in their adoption. The S-curves below shows the adoption of well known technologies through time. This can be further examined by looking at the number of Bitcoin users and comparing this with the number of potential users.
This figure seems to be the best bet on the number of Bitcoin users in No quality research has been published since. Therefore, this number is used as a foundation. On 1 January , the figure was 11 million.
Dec 30, · The chart is self-explanatory. It shows the Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve. The price has potential to make it past $K as well as fall below $20K in the upcoming months. Missing: diffusion curve. The diffusion curve of Bitcoin is developed based on the estimated parameters. The results indicate that the diffusion of Bitcoin has passed early adoption and takeoff periods and is close . Apr 08, · Curve, a fintech company focused on aggregating credit and debit cards into one digital location, has launched bitcoin rewards for purchases. Curve allows users to “load” .